【广发金工】均线情绪持续修复

Market Performance - The recent five trading days saw the Sci-Tech 50 Index increase by 3.17%, the ChiNext Index by 5.69%, the large-cap value by 1.52%, the large-cap growth by 2.61%, the SSE 50 by 1.27%, and the small-cap represented by the CSI 2000 by 4.94% [1] - The sectors showing strong performance include computers and national defense, while oil, petrochemicals, and food and beverages lagged behind [1] Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium, calculated as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, indicates that the implied returns of equity and bond assets are at historically high levels, reaching 4.17% on April 26, 2022, and 4.08% on October 28, 2022 [1] - As of January 19, 2024, the indicator stood at 4.11%, marking the fifth occurrence since 2016 to exceed 4% [1] Valuation Levels - As of June 27, 2025, the CSI All Index's PETTM percentile is at 59%, with the SSE 50 and CSI 300 at 66% and 57% respectively, while the ChiNext Index is close to 19% [2] - The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively low compared to historical averages [2] Long-term Market Trends - The technical analysis of the Deep 100 Index suggests a cyclical pattern of bear markets every three years, followed by bull markets, with significant declines observed in previous cycles [2] - The current adjustment phase, which began in Q1 2021, appears to have sufficient time and space for a potential upward cycle [2] Fund Flow and Trading Activity - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 1.3 billion yuan, while margin trading increased by approximately 17 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.4528 trillion yuan across the two markets [4] AI and Machine Learning Applications - The use of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for modeling price and volume data has been explored, with the latest focus on sectors such as banking and artificial intelligence [3][11]