热点思考 | 如果美国失业率升至4.6%？——关税“压力测试”系列之十三（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by tariff impacts and economic slowdown [3][89] Group 2 - Tariffs are projected to have a more significant impact on the U.S. job market compared to previous tariff measures, particularly affecting the manufacturing sector [3][65] - According to Okun's Law, a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a direct correlation between economic performance and employment levels [3][89] - The article discusses the potential for the Sahm Rule to signal a recession if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, as historical data suggests a strong correlation between rising unemployment and economic downturns [4][99][100] Group 3 - The article notes that the current labor market is in a "loosened" phase, with increasing unemployment driven by demand-side weaknesses, making it difficult for new entrants to find jobs [17][24] - The impact of immigration policies on the labor market is significant, with reduced immigration potentially exacerbating employment challenges in certain sectors [40][47] - The article emphasizes that the current economic environment, characterized by declining wage growth and rising unemployment, differs from previous periods, suggesting a more complex relationship between tariffs and employment [77][81]