海外高频 | 美方宣布已与中国签署正式贸易协议（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 rising by 3.4% and the Nasdaq by 4.2% during the week [1][2] - The US dollar index fell by 1.5% to 97.26, while the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar [1][32] - WTI crude oil prices dropped by 11.3% to $65.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold decreased by 2.8% to $3269.2 per ounce [1][46] Group 2: Trade Agreement Developments - The US and China signed a formal trade agreement on June 24, which includes the lifting of China's rare earth export ban and the US's cancellation of export bans on ethane, chip software, and jet engines [1][64] - The US has not disclosed further specific terms of the agreement, but it marks a significant step in trade relations [1][64] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts has increased, with some supporting a cut in July while others advocate for a wait-and-see approach [1][70] - The latest PCE inflation data showed a month-on-month change of -0.3%, indicating potential weakness in consumer spending [1][77] Group 4: Global Market Performance - Developed market indices saw broad increases, with the Nikkei 225 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively [2] - Emerging market indices also performed well, with the Cairo CASE30 index increasing by 9.1% [2] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Most commodities experienced mixed performance, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both declining significantly, while some metals like LME copper and aluminum saw increases of 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively [46][53]