【光大研究每日速递】20250630

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various sectors in the market, highlighting trends and potential investment opportunities, particularly in the context of recent geopolitical developments and market dynamics. Financial Market Overview - A-shares have shown strong growth, with the North China 50 index rising by 6.84% weekly, leading major broad-based indices. Market sentiment is positive, with trading volume steadily increasing, indicating a shift towards bullish signals for most indices, except for the North China 50 which remains cautious [3]. Oil and Gas Sector - Geopolitical risks have eased, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, which may lead to a restart of consolidation among overseas oil and gas giants. As of June 27, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $66.34 and $65.07 per barrel, reflecting declines of 12.5% and 12.1% respectively from the previous week [4]. Agriculture Sector - In the pig farming sector, the industry capacity cycle has reached a bottom, but high inventory levels continue to impact market dynamics. Recent policy initiatives are accelerating the process of reducing inventory, which is expected to realign supply and demand. A long-term perspective suggests that after inventory reduction, the sector may enter a prolonged period of profitability [6]. Coal Mining Sector - There are signs of a turning point in coking coal inventories, with a reported decrease in both raw and refined coal stocks for the first time since May. As of the week of June 23-29, the inventory of raw coal was 683.5 million tons, down by 17.9 million tons, and refined coal was 463.1 million tons, down by 36.1 million tons. Additionally, the average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 7 yuan to 616 yuan per ton, indicating the start of a seasonal price rise [7].