【固收】由银行负债压力想到的——2025年6月29日利率债观察（张旭）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pressure on banks' liabilities following a recent interest rate cut, emphasizing the challenges banks face in attracting deposits and the implications for their profitability and support for the real economy [3][4][5]. Group 1: Liability Pressure Concept - The concept of liability pressure is defined by both the scale of the liability gap and the difficulty of filling that gap [3]. - There are two measures for assessing the liability gap: one relative to regulatory indicators, which is rigid, and another relative to the bank's own needs, which is more flexible [4]. Group 2: Deposit Demand and Competition - In a market with ample liquidity, banks face a fixed total scale of deposits, making it more challenging to attract deposits compared to obtaining liquidity from the central bank [4]. - Banks often raise deposit rates to attract more deposits, but this can lead to a competitive cycle where banks follow each other's rate increases, resulting in a temporary rise in deposit rates [4][5]. Group 3: Scale Obsession and Its Consequences - Some banks may feel the need to increase deposit rates due to slower deposit growth following the interest rate cut, concerns about their ranking, or a desire to improve their position [5]. - This scale obsession leads to a competitive environment that can lower banks' net interest margins and profit growth, ultimately affecting their ability to support the real economy sustainably [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Future Risks - The article notes that while regulatory measures have improved market competition, the tendency for banks to engage in competitive behaviors that undermine these regulations can resurface [6]. - Examples include banks circumventing interest rate caps through manual interest compensation or non-bank deposit channels, indicating a need for a cultural shift away from scale obsession within banks [6].