Core Viewpoint - Manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, but corporate expectations have dropped to a low level; increased policy support is needed to monitor changes in micro expectations [3][6][100] Manufacturing Sector - June manufacturing PMI improved to 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May, exceeding market expectations of 49.3% [2][10] - The production and new orders indices both rose, reaching 51% and 50.2% respectively, indicating expansion [3][10] - The new orders index showed slight improvement, with domestic demand orders recovering more than new export orders [22][98] - High-frequency indicators reveal a year-on-year decline in foreign trade cargo volume, indicating reduced export strength [22][98] Industry Analysis - High-energy-consuming industries saw a significant PMI increase, rising 0.8 percentage points to 47.8%, driven by investment and ongoing infrastructure projects [4][28] - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also benefited from domestic demand, with PMIs rising to 51.4% and 50.4% respectively [4][28] - Food and beverage, as well as specialized equipment sectors, have maintained production and new order indices in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [4][28] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector's PMI rose significantly by 1.8 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating rapid progress in infrastructure projects [31][99] - The civil engineering PMI reached 56.7%, remaining in a high prosperity range for three consecutive months [31][99] - In contrast, the real estate sector's construction progress appears slower, with weak performance in cement and rebar consumption [31][99] Service Sector - The service sector PMI slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points to 50.1%, primarily due to the fading effects of holiday consumption [5][42] - Business activity indices in retail, transportation, and hospitality sectors showed varying degrees of decline, reflecting reduced market activity [5][42] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications and financial services maintained high business activity indices above 60% [5][42] Future Outlook - There are risks of weakening manufacturing sentiment, necessitating close attention to the impact of incremental policies on domestic demand and changes in corporate expectations [6][100] - Despite the recovery in production and new orders, the corporate expectation index has fallen to its lowest level in 2023 at 52% [6][100] - Recent policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption relending initiative, may support corporate and consumer expectations [6][100]
6月PMI：现实强于预期（申万宏观·赵伟团队）
申万宏源宏观·2025-06-30 08:22