深度 | 欧洲复兴+地缘扰动，原油会再涨么？——大宗商品分析框架之六【陈兴团队·财通宏观】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict, on the global oil supply and demand dynamics, and explores potential unexpected factors that could influence oil prices in the near future. Group 1: Supply Side Analysis - Oil production is concentrated in resource-rich countries, primarily led by OPEC+, with current OPEC spare capacity accounting for approximately 5.5% of global production [5][10] - In the short term, the supply is relatively ample due to a shift from production cuts to increases, while long-term supply remains loose, with a potential increase of about 0.6% if the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolves [5][14] - The cost of extraction plays a crucial role in determining the oil price floor and marginal production capacity, with Middle Eastern countries having the lowest extraction costs [7][15] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - Global oil demand is primarily concentrated in the US, China, and Europe, with growth expected in developing economies due to industrialization and urbanization [17][21] - The revival of the European economy is projected to contribute an additional 0.6% to oil demand, with Germany's infrastructure investments and Ukraine's reconstruction efforts accounting for approximately 0.3% each [27][29] - Long-term demand is expected to decline due to energy transition trends, particularly in China, where the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market is anticipated to significantly reduce oil consumption [42][45] Group 3: Price Outlook - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $60 to $80 per barrel throughout the year, with a potential central price of around $75 per barrel by year-end, reflecting a nearly 10% increase from the mid-year level [54] - Short-term supply-demand gaps remain tight, influenced by geopolitical tensions and other factors, while long-term demand is under pressure from energy transition initiatives [47][54] - Various scenarios regarding the Iran-Israel conflict could lead to significant price fluctuations, with potential spikes above $200 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [34][35]