Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of the global financial and monetary order, emphasizing the challenges faced by the US dollar and the implications for asset allocation strategies in the coming years [1]. Group 1: Dollar and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the "Triffin Dilemma" faced by the US dollar, exacerbated by fluctuating tariff policies under Trump, indicating a mid-term rebalancing pressure on dollar assets [1]. - The introduction of dollar stablecoins represents a dual effort by the US government to both centralize emerging cryptocurrencies and tacitly accept the decentralization of traditional dollars [3][5]. - Despite the emergence of dollar stablecoins, the article warns that they may not provide the expected stability, suggesting a continued strategic outlook on decentralized digital currencies like Bitcoin and diversified stablecoins [6]. Group 2: Renminbi Internationalization - The article identifies key areas for the internationalization of the Renminbi, including trade settlement, currency swap liquidity, offshore bond financing, and the development of offshore financial markets, particularly in Hong Kong [8]. - It notes that Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore Renminbi market is crucial for providing high-quality Renminbi-denominated assets, enhancing its strategic importance [8]. - The current level of Renminbi internationalization is deemed to have significant room for improvement, especially when compared to China's GDP and trade volume on a global scale [9]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article recommends focusing on non-dollar assets, gold, and Bitcoin as alternative asset revaluation opportunities, particularly during periods of dollar depreciation [10]. - For tactical asset allocation over the next 3-6 months, it suggests a standard allocation to equities, underweighting oil and US Treasuries, while overweighting gold; and for the next 6-12 months, it anticipates potential trend opportunities in global equities and risk assets like copper [10]. - It also points out that the allocation of funds in Chinese, Japanese, and European stock markets remains low, indicating significant potential for growth, while US stock market allocations are at high levels and may decrease [10].
美元稳定币:科技精英与传统秩序之间的一次博弈
申万宏源研究·2025-06-30 01:22