金属周报 | 宏观risk on叠加供应约束，铜价向上突破、黄金继续回调

Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment improved as the Israel-Palestine conflict eased, and U.S. macro data showed resilience, leading to increased expectations for three interest rate cuts this year, resulting in a "risk on" environment where risk assets generally rose, particularly copper prices which increased while gold prices fell [1][3]. Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices fell last week, with COMEX gold down 2.9% and SHFE gold down 1.5%, while silver prices showed a slight increase [2][21]. - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict led to a decrease in market risk aversion, and subsequent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials raised expectations for interest rate cuts, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to decline [4][20]. - Despite the short-term decline in gold prices, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties suggest limited downside potential for gold in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to wait for stabilization [4][49]. Base Metals Market Review - Copper prices rose significantly, with COMEX copper increasing by 4.86% and SHFE copper by 2.79%, driven by a combination of favorable market sentiment and supply constraints from overseas smelting plants [2][3]. - The copper market is expected to enter a traditional off-season with low inventory levels, which may support price increases if inventory does not accumulate during this period [5][49]. - The copper concentrate TC weekly index rose slightly, indicating a "strong mine, weak smelting" market dynamic, with smelting plants facing production losses due to low processing fees [8][10]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 530,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 3.62 million ounces, indicating mixed trends in precious metal inventories [35]. - The positioning data from CFTC shows that non-commercial short positions in gold remain low, suggesting a lack of strong directional signals from positioning alone [7][40]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive for copper, with low inventory levels potentially leading to price increases, while gold may experience limited downside due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [49].