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美元鲸落,万物而生?——基于中长视角的大宗商品展望
对冲研投·2025-06-30 10:51

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the long-term outlook for the commodity market, emphasizing the ongoing down cycles in real estate and coal sectors, which are expected to continue impacting commodity demand negatively [5][7][10]. - The real estate market is underperforming due to high inventory levels, and stabilization requires either market-driven solutions or policy interventions. Current housing price pressures indicate that recovery will take time [10][13]. - The construction industry, which includes non-real estate projects, is also expected to decline, further pressuring demand for related commodities. The construction area is projected to continue decreasing until the end of 2027 [11][13]. Group 2 - Coal prices have returned to levels seen between 2016 and 2020, primarily due to increased supply and competition from renewable energy sources. The demand for coal is expected to remain weak as renewable energy continues to grow [16][18]. - The article highlights that while coal prices are at marginal cost levels, a rebound is possible, but a significant reversal in the downtrend is unlikely. This indicates that commodities related to coal and real estate will remain in a down cycle [18][20]. - The performance of commodities linked to the dollar's credit has been strong, with gold and silver prices significantly increasing. The article discusses the potential for a weakening dollar to influence commodity prices positively in the future [20][22]. Group 3 - The article discusses the implications of U.S. fiscal policies on the dollar's strength, suggesting that high fiscal deficits will undermine dollar credibility, which could lead to a favorable environment for commodities like gold [21][24]. - Gold is identified as a leading indicator for other commodities, with its price movements often preceding changes in the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index by about a year [24][27]. - The relationship between the dollar cycle and emerging market growth is emphasized, indicating that a weaker dollar could lead to increased demand for commodities from emerging markets, which are the primary growth drivers for commodity demand [30][33].