鲍威尔之后，美股下一个新高靠什么？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts and their implications for market performance [1][3][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The key issue in the market is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, as the end of government leverage raises concerns about who will drive economic growth [3][6]. - The Trump administration's economic policies have shifted, ending government leverage and relying on private sector actions, which are sensitive to market interest rates [6][9]. - Current high mortgage rates are limiting consumer borrowing, making it difficult for households to increase leverage [7][10]. Group 2: Consumer Spending - Recent consumer spending data shows a significant decline, with a 0.28% decrease in May, marking the worst performance in over a year [10][11]. - The decline in durable goods consumption and a shift to negative growth in service consumption indicate a broader weakening in consumer spending [11][13]. - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices remains uncertain, with only limited effects observed in specific product categories [13][16]. Group 3: Tariff Negotiations - Upcoming tariff negotiations are critical, with deadlines approaching for agreements with multiple countries, including the U.S. and Europe, which could significantly impact market conditions [20][21]. - The market has already priced in expectations for a September interest rate cut, leaving little room for error as negotiations unfold [20][21]. Group 4: Portfolio Performance - The Alpha Dolphin virtual portfolio underperformed compared to major indices, primarily due to a pullback in gold positions and insufficient equity exposure [21][25]. - The portfolio has shown a total return of 91.1% since inception, significantly outperforming MSCI China [23][27]. Group 5: Stock Contributions - Notable stock performances included TSMC, which saw a 9.1% increase due to strong market position and revenue growth expectations [26]. - Conversely, companies like Costco and Guizhou Moutai faced challenges, with Costco's sales declining amid weak retail data [26].