光大证券研究·2025-06-30 13:10Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural alpha opportunities in various sectors, particularly in real estate and metals, as market conditions evolve and performance indicators shift [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - In June, major A-share indices experienced an overall increase, with the ChiNext index rising by 6.1% [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market showed a fluctuating upward trend due to improved overseas conditions and domestic risk appetite [4]. Group 2: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is currently exhibiting weak beta, but structural highlights are emerging due to further regional and urban differentiation [5]. - From January to May 2025, the sales amount of commercial residential properties in key cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Chengdu) increased by 14.4% [5]. - The transaction volume and price of land in 30 core cities tracked by Everbright rose, with a transaction area increase of 15.6% and a floor price increase of 23.9% [5]. Group 3: Metals Sector - The price of electrolytic aluminum reached a three-month high, indicating potential recovery in the steel sector's profitability towards historical average levels [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions," which may positively impact steel companies [6]. Group 4: Copper Industry - LME copper inventory has dropped to a 22-month low, leading to tight copper supply outside the U.S. and a subsequent price increase due to short-covering [8]. - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to decline by 13% year-on-year from July to September, indicating a slowdown in demand [8]. Group 5: Semiconductor and Chemical Materials - The global semiconductor sales are projected to reach approximately $630.5 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 19.7% [9]. - The steady growth in the semiconductor market is expected to drive demand for semiconductor materials [9]. Group 6: Renewable Energy - The wind power sector is anticipated to see improved profitability due to stable pricing and cost reductions in components [10]. - The photovoltaic sector is expected to benefit from upcoming policies aimed at preventing excessive competition, with a focus on specific technologies and companies [10].