投资中的“一致性预期”到底应该如何界定

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the contrasting opinions regarding the future of liquor stocks, emphasizing that differing viewpoints are a natural part of market dynamics [4][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment - There is a significant gap between the bearish consensus on liquor stocks and the ongoing bullish sentiments expressed by influential figures in the market [4]. - Historical examples, such as the banking sector and Tencent, illustrate that despite prevailing negative opinions, there are always proponents who maintain a positive outlook [4][9]. Group 2: Definition of "Consensus Expectation" - A "consensus expectation" is reached when absurd and illogical narratives gain widespread acceptance, indicating that a particular viewpoint has become mainstream [5]. - The proliferation of such narratives often reflects the participation of less discerning retail investors, who represent the majority in the market [5]. Group 3: Current Liquor Industry Analysis - Two prevalent bearish arguments against the liquor industry are highlighted: the decline in population and the association of liquor with the real estate cycle [12][16]. - The argument that young people are not consuming liquor is countered by the observation that aging populations do not necessarily lead to a decline in overall population size, as seen in countries like Japan and South Korea [13][14]. - The claim that liquor sales are tied to the real estate cycle is challenged, suggesting that both liquor and real estate growth are influenced by broader monetary supply trends, indicating that as long as M2 continues to grow, both sectors can recover [16][17].