市场“一半是海水，一半是火焰”，下半年分化延续or风格切换？︱“重阳S4”圆桌2025年三季度

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown a highly differentiated structure in the first half of the year, with sectors like technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption performing well, while traditional sectors lag behind. The underlying reasons for this divergence and the outlook for the second half are discussed [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The primary drivers of the current market dynamics are macroeconomic factors and technological innovation, with China's aging population and deflationary pressures resembling Japan's past, but with stronger innovation capabilities [7][8]. - The traditional industries are still in a phase of low adjustment, while emerging industries, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, are thriving [8][9]. - The market is experiencing a revaluation of Chinese assets, with sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and technology being the focus of this revaluation [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The market's volatility in April due to the Trump tariff war highlighted the importance of distinguishing between short-term fluctuations and fundamental risks to companies' core competitiveness [9][10]. - The investment strategy emphasizes maintaining high positions in promising stocks during market downturns, as short-term volatility can present buying opportunities for fundamentally strong companies [10][11]. Group 3: Future Market Trends - The market is expected to continue experiencing both internal differentiation within sectors like technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as potential style shifts towards undervalued sectors [17][18]. - The transition from a "beta" driven market to one focused on "alpha" suggests that investors should prioritize individual stock performance over broad sector trends [14][20]. Group 4: Innovative Pharmaceuticals Outlook - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has strong long-term fundamentals, with significant clinical data and increasing international recognition, indicating a promising future despite recent adjustments [22][23]. - The sector is expected to benefit from favorable policy changes and a growing international market presence, with many companies still undervalued despite recent gains [24][26]. - Identifying true leaders in the innovative pharmaceutical space will be crucial, as not all companies will perform equally well in the future [27].