【广发宏观王丹】6月PMI背后的七个中观线索

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, with six sectors in expansion compared to four in May, indicating a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][5][6]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The sectors leading in absolute prosperity include petroleum, chemical fiber, electrical machinery, specialized equipment, and agricultural products, benefiting from commodity price influences and large-scale equipment updates [1][7]. - The automotive sector saw a 7.8-point increase in export orders, with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in retail sales during the "618" promotion, and the launch of the 2025 new energy vehicle initiative [2][10]. - The pharmaceutical sector's PMI rose by 7.2 points, ending a two-month decline, influenced by policies supporting innovative drug development [2][10]. - Specialized equipment and non-metallic minerals also showed improvements, with increases of 3.3 and 3.7 points respectively, correlating with the rise in construction PMI [2][10]. - High-energy industries' PMI rose by 0.8 points, reflecting a divergence from overall manufacturing PMI trends [2][12]. Emerging Industries Summary - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone for June, with new materials leading for two consecutive months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][13]. - The automotive manufacturing sector improved, but the new energy vehicle segment saw a significant decline in production by 15.9 percentage points, likely due to production cuts and supply-demand adjustments [3][15]. Construction Industry Summary - The construction PMI increased by 1.8 points in June, with residential and construction activity indices rising by 6.1 and 3.4 points respectively, attributed to improved funding for projects and minimal weather impact on indoor construction [3][15][16]. - However, the real estate sector's activity index and new orders declined by 0.7 and 2.9 points, indicating ongoing challenges in the front-end sales segment [3][19]. Service Industry Summary - The information technology and financial services sectors showed the highest prosperity, while offline travel-related industries experienced significant declines, with transportation and hospitality sectors dropping over 5 points [4][19][20]. - The service sector PMI decreased slightly by 0.1 points to 50.1, with various service sectors showing mixed performance [4][20]. Overall Insights - The overall PMI remains low, highlighting the need to focus on mid-level indicators, such as the benefits seen in emerging sectors, the automotive export order increase, and the recovery in pharmaceutical manufacturing [4][21].