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强在中游——6月PMI数据点评
一瑜中的·2025-07-01 06:56

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI shows a slight recovery, indicating a stabilization in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, which is performing better than other sectors [2][4][8]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month [2][13]. - The production index increased to 51.0%, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from 50.7% [2][13]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, compared to 49.8% previously, while the new export orders index slightly improved to 47.7% from 47.5% [2][13]. - The employment index decreased to 47.9%, down from 48.1% [2][13]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, showing stability from the previous month's 50.0% [2][13]. - The raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up from 47.4% [2][13]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest among sectors at 51.4%, showing a significant recovery of 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6% [4][8][9]. - The construction industry business activity index for June is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - The service industry business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. Group 3: Price Trends - The PMI output price index for June is at 46.2%, up from 44.7%, but remains below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months [5][14]. - The construction chain's overall price index decreased by 0.8% in June, indicating continued weakness in market activity [5][12]. - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.8%, indicating insufficient market activity [5][12]. Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 52.0%, slightly down from 52.5% [15]. - The construction industry business activity expectation index increased to 53.9%, up from 52.4% [15]. - The service industry business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, down from 56.5% [15].