从银行保险价值重估看本轮牛市的起点

Core Viewpoint - The rise in asset prices is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, reflecting where funds are directed. The stock market is currently experiencing this shift after the real estate market. The bull market is driven not by a sudden surge in corporate profits but by a systematic redirection of funds from traditional sectors to undervalued core assets in the secondary market, creating a mismatch between liquidity and asset supply [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking and insurance sectors in China have undergone a significant value reassessment since last year, accelerating since May 2023, indicating a trend not driven by retail investors [2]. - The valuation of Chinese banking and insurance stocks has been at unprecedented lows, with major banks' price-to-book ratios dropping significantly, such as Bank of China at 0.40 and Agricultural Bank of China at 0.40, marking a historical low [4][5]. - The insurance sector has faced even harsher conditions, with China Life's price-to-embedded value ratio at 0.22 and a price-to-book ratio of 0.6, placing it in the lowest 5% of its historical range [4]. Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - In contrast to Chinese financial institutions, major global banks like JPMorgan have a price-to-book ratio of 2.4, while European and Japanese banks hover around 1.0, highlighting a significant undervaluation of Chinese financial stocks [5]. - The extreme undervaluation of Chinese financial stocks, coupled with dividend yields of 6% to 8%, presents a unique investment opportunity in the global financial market [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Market Recovery - Since 2020, China's financial system has been in deep adjustment, focusing on reducing shadow banking and addressing real estate and local government debt risks, which has pressured profitability and valuation [6]. - Despite the challenges, this period has led to improved asset quality, with banks achieving a provisioning coverage ratio above 200% and stable capital adequacy ratios [6][7]. - The current policy environment is actively directing liquidity into the equity market, with regulatory measures encouraging insurance companies to allocate a significant portion of new premiums to A-shares [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing valuation recovery is seen as just the beginning, with continued monetary supply and a focus on undervalued, high-dividend financial blue-chip stocks expected to absorb market liquidity [10]. - The market is anticipated to experience a gradual bull market, characterized by steady index increases and reduced volatility, until a new phase of large-scale equity financing or a shift in interest rate cycles occurs [10].