行业透视｜7月预期新房供应转降，核心区配套产品俱佳项目还将保持高热

Core Viewpoint - The new housing transaction volume is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels in July, with a potential narrowing of the year-on-year decline due to a low base from last year, indicating a weak recovery trend [2][12]. Supply Overview - In July, the supply of new homes in 28 key cities decreased by 32% month-on-month and 29% year-on-year, reaching the second-lowest level of the year, with a total area of 5.13 million square meters [4][7]. - Among first-tier cities, Beijing is the only city showing significant supply, while Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all experienced notable reductions [4][5]. - In second-tier cities, over 80% of cities saw a month-on-month decline, with 20 out of 24 cities reporting decreases, and some cities like Qingdao and Xiamen facing drastic drops [5][6]. - The supply in third and fourth-tier cities continued to remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 37% [6][8]. Supply Structure - The supply structure in key cities is tilted towards improvement demand, with the proportions being 40% for basic needs, 45% for improvements, and 15% for high-end products [8][10]. - Major cities can be categorized based on their supply focus: cities like Kunming and Wuxi have over 60% of their supply as basic needs, while cities like Beijing and Chengdu focus more on improvement products [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The average absorption rate for expected projects in 28 key cities in July is projected to be 29%, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [12]. - There is a notable divergence in market performance among cities, with hotspots like Beijing and Hangzhou maintaining strong demand due to robust purchasing power, while cities like Zhengzhou and Ningbo show signs of weak recovery [12][13].