银行股，还能涨多久？

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown independent performance over the past two years, with state-owned banks leading the way in 2023 and regional banks following in 2024, resulting in significant outperformance compared to the broader market indices [2][4]. Summary by Sections Valuation Recovery - The core logic behind the valuation recovery of bank stocks is the clarification of risk bottom lines, which had been previously obscured by overly pessimistic expectations [5]. - Since 2023, macro policies addressing risks in large private real estate companies and local government debts have helped clarify the bottom lines for real estate, local debt, and bank capital risks [6][8]. Risk Management - The reduction of real estate loan ratios and the ongoing clearance of existing risks have established a turning point for risk management in the banking sector [5][6]. - The introduction of local debt resolution policies in 2023 has further clarified the risk bottom lines, leading to a valuation recovery for state-owned banks [6]. Capital and Dividend Stability - Concerns about banks' ability to maintain stable dividend payouts due to declining net interest margins and ROE have been alleviated by government capital injections, which, while dilutive, have enhanced dividend certainty [6][8]. - The potential for refinancing among smaller banks may also present opportunities for capital replenishment [7]. Buyer Dynamics - The primary buyers of bank stocks over the past two years have been state-owned enterprises, with significant inflows from ETFs and foreign capital [10][15]. - The trend of state-owned capital increasing its holdings in bank stocks has been a key driver of the sector's performance, with a notable absence of retail investor participation [9][10]. Future Outlook - The ongoing support from state-owned capital is expected to stabilize the banking sector, as these entities are unlikely to sell unless valuations become excessive [17][22]. - The anticipated influx of capital from insurance funds and public funds, driven by low yields in fixed-income assets, is expected to provide additional upward momentum for bank stocks [18][22]. - The recent regulatory changes encouraging public funds to align with performance benchmarks may lead to significant capital inflows into the banking sector, potentially exceeding billions [20][22].