【笔记20250702— 债市也需“反内卷”】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, emphasizing the need for a "de-involution" approach, particularly in the A-bond sector, amidst a backdrop of weak stock market performance and a balanced, loose funding environment [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 985 billion yuan, with 3,653 billion yuan maturing today, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,668 billion yuan [2]. - The funding environment remains balanced and loose, with the price of funds continuing to decline; DR001 is around 1.36% and DR007 is around 1.51% [3]. - The stock market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with further loosening of the funding environment leading to a decline in interest rates; the 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.6425% and fell to a low of 1.6345% before slightly rebounding to 1.64% [4]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The article highlights the "de-involution" theme, particularly in the supply-side concept, suggesting that the A-bond market needs to focus on longer durations, bypassing the 10-year and 30-year bonds to directly target the 50-year bonds [5]. - The recent decline in the 10-year government bond yield to 1.6% is interpreted as a standard reaction to balance sheet recession, where the primary goal shifts from profit pursuit to survival and debt repayment, leading to a drastic drop in borrowing willingness [5].