如何构建促消费长效机制：从补贴驱动到制度创新（申万宏观 · 赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key macroeconomic policy in China, especially under the dual challenges of stabilizing growth and external pressures. It advocates for a combination of short-term stimulus measures and long-term structural reforms to enhance consumer capacity and confidence [1][2]. Summary by Sections Historical Consumption Promotion Toolbox - China's past consumption promotion policies can be categorized into direct fiscal subsidies and indirect support measures. Direct measures include subsidies for rural areas, "trade-in" subsidies, and consumption vouchers, while indirect measures involve tax reductions and fee exemptions [3]. - Significant past initiatives include the "home appliance and motorcycle to the countryside" policies from 2007 to 2012, and various tax incentives for automobile purchases from 2014 to 2017 [3][4]. Effectiveness of Consumption Promotion Policies - The first round of home appliance and motorcycle policies resulted in substantial sales growth, with a reported sales revenue of 6,597.6 billion yuan against a subsidy expenditure of 765 billion yuan, yielding a fiscal multiplier of 8.6 [6]. - The policies led to a notable increase in the ownership of home appliances in rural areas, with refrigerator and air conditioner ownership rising significantly during the implementation period [6][7]. Current Consumption Promotion Measures - The recent "trade-in" policy has shown significant results, with a 39% year-on-year increase in sales of home appliances in December 2024 following the policy's implementation [9]. - Service consumption recovery remains a challenge, with current levels still below pre-2019 trends. The article suggests expanding consumption promotion policies to include service sectors to stimulate recovery [10]. Long-term Mechanisms for Consumption Growth - To sustain consumption growth, it is essential to focus on reducing burdens and increasing income for residents. This includes improving pension levels and implementing targeted subsidies for key demographics such as the elderly and children [11][12]. - The article highlights the need for a policy framework that combines short-term effectiveness with long-term structural reforms, particularly in income distribution and social security systems, to transition from "policy-driven consumption" to "endogenous growth-driven consumption" [13].