国泰海通｜固收：成长为矛，业绩为锚——2025年7月转债策略展望

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the focus on high-growth sectors driven by policy support and industrial innovation, including technology growth, new consumption, cyclical growth, and financial innovation [1]. Group 1: High-Growth Sectors - The technology growth sector includes strong performance certainty in computing hardware, the semiconductor industry benefiting from domestic substitution, and military industry resonating with domestic and international demand [1]. - New consumption is represented by emotional consumption, which serves as a new engine to boost consumption [1]. - The cyclical growth sector combines cyclical and growth characteristics, with short-term price increase catalysts [1]. - The financial sector is driven by the decline in risk-free interest rates and innovations in stablecoins [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Following the rating disclosures, the downward adjustment of convertible bond ratings has removed constraints on low-priced convertible bonds, leading to an accelerated exit of bank convertible bonds [1]. - High Yield to Maturity (YTM) and dual low convertible bonds are expected to become the new base assets [1]. - The impact of the June rating downgrades is manageable, reflecting market preparedness for the downgrades of weaker quality convertible bonds, with no concerns over credit risk in a relatively strong equity market [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to continue strengthening in July, influenced by three main factors: earnings forecasts from A-share listed companies, potential new actions from Trump after the tariff delay, and important mid-year meetings setting the economic outlook and policies for the second half [2]. - The report suggests that the valuation logic of the Chinese stock market in 2025 is driven by domestic industrial innovation and a systematic reduction in market discount rates, which will attract incremental capital [2]. - The easing of external tensions further strengthens the internal certainty logic, indicating potential upward movement in the stock market before the end of July [2]. Group 4: Convertible Bond Market - High valuations do not restrict the rise of convertible bonds, as the equity market is expected to remain strong, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand in the convertible bond market [3]. - The median price of convertible bonds reached 124.21 yuan, a new high for 2025, driven by optimistic expectations for underlying stocks [3]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with strong performance certainty and significant valuation space, such as AI, military, semiconductors, humanoid robots, stablecoins, innovative drugs, and emotional consumption [3].