Core Viewpoint - The "Irrational Exuberance Index" developed by Barclays has surpassed the warning threshold of 10.7%, indicating a resurgence of speculative trading in the U.S. stock market, reminiscent of past market bubbles [1][2]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The "Irrational Exuberance Index" has reached a monthly average of 10.7%, the first time it has crossed the double-digit threshold since February, with a historical average of around 7% [1]. - The index is based on derivatives market data, volatility indicators, and options market sentiment signals, and has previously peaked during the late 1990s internet bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1]. - The market is currently characterized by speculative trading, with significant increases in popular concept stocks and traditional fundamental analysis becoming less effective [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Performance - Optimism in the market is driven by expectations of trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners, as well as speculation that the Trump administration may delay tariff implementation [2]. - The SPAC issuance has rebounded significantly, with the number of new SPACs in 2025 already exceeding the total for the previous two years [2]. - The ARK Innovation ETF has recorded one of its highest annual gains, with specific sectors showing extreme performance: Bitcoin-related stocks surged by 78%, quantum computing stocks rose by 69%, and meme stocks averaged a 44% increase [2]. Group 3: Risk and Recommendations - The index readings indicate overly exuberant investor sentiment, which poses a risk of increased market volatility [2]. - There is a strong correlation between the index and net borrowing positions in margin accounts, reflecting high retail participation [2]. - Despite the presence of bubble signals, timing the market remains challenging, and historical trends suggest bubbles can last longer than expected [2].
泡沫预警信号！美股创新高之际 一项 “非理性繁荣 “指标破警戒线
贝塔投资智库·2025-07-03 03:50