螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板来啦：当前还在低估吗｜2025年7月份

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of July 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][11]. Quantitative Signals - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests the market is undervalued [21]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that various market styles (large-cap value, large-cap growth, small-cap value, small-cap growth) are currently at low valuation levels, with small-cap growth rebounding significantly from historical lows [23]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 3.17, indicating that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this value exceeds 2, which typically signals a good investment opportunity [25][26]. - The financing balance in the A-share market reflects investor borrowing to buy stocks, with lower balances indicating a cooler market [29]. - The trading volume percentile is at 85.90%, suggesting that current trading activity is relatively low compared to historical data, indicating a subdued market [30]. Qualitative Signals - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are both indicators of market sentiment; a high failure rate typically correlates with a bearish market [34]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity; when the index approaches the M2 liquidity bottom, it suggests a low market condition [36]. - The scale of established funds has decreased significantly, with many funds down by 50-60% from their peak levels in 2021, reflecting a bearish market sentiment [38]. - The issuance of new funds has reached historical lows, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market environment [44]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, with several monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [51][58]. Summary - The analysis of both quantitative and qualitative signals indicates that the market is currently in a relatively undervalued state, with various indicators suggesting potential investment opportunities despite prevailing bearish sentiments [56][57].