光伏周价格 | 产业链价格持续触底，月内跌幅逐渐收窄

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting price stability in various segments despite high inventory levels and weak demand, indicating potential challenges ahead for pricing and production [4][5][9]. Price Trends - The price of N-type polysilicon remains stable, with mainstream transaction prices at 34.5 RMB/kg for N-type re-investment material, 32.0 RMB/kg for N-type dense material, and 31.5 RMB/kg for N-type granular silicon [4][5]. - In the silicon wafer segment, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.88 RMB/piece for N-type M10 wafers, 1.20 RMB/piece for N-type G12 wafers, and 1.00 RMB/piece for N-type G12R wafers [9][10]. - For battery cells, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.225 RMB/W for M10 single crystal TOPCon cells, and 0.245 RMB/W for both G12 and G12R single crystal TOPCon cells [13][14]. - In the module segment, the mainstream transaction prices are 0.67 RMB/W for 182mm TOPCon double-sided double-glass modules and 0.72 RMB/W for 210mm HJT double-sided double-glass modules [17][19]. Inventory Dynamics - The inventory of polysilicon in the industry is over 370,000 tons, with leading manufacturers increasing output, leading to a potential oversupply situation [7][8]. - Silicon wafer inventory remains above 2 billion pieces, with 183N wafers accounting for over 50% of the total, indicating a buildup of stock [11]. - Battery cell manufacturers have approximately 10 days of inventory, but this may rise due to oversupply, particularly with 183N cells [15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In July, polysilicon output is expected to be between 110,000 to 115,000 tons, with demand from the silicon wafer side showing slow inventory reduction and price pressure from downstream [8][10]. - The module production is projected to be between 52 to 53 GW, with a 6% month-over-month increase, but demand remains weak, particularly from second and third-tier manufacturers [18][19]. - The article notes that the overall demand for components is supported mainly by centralized projects, but there is uncertainty in the market due to declining prices [18][20]. International Market Insights - In Europe, component prices have decreased, affecting overall pricing due to an influx of low-priced components [20]. - In India, DCR component prices have slightly increased due to government projects, while imported components have seen a price drop due to oversupply [20]. - In the U.S., FOB product prices have slightly increased, with ongoing discussions regarding tax credits for projects expected to be operational by the end of 2027 [20].