独家洞察 | 降息信号+美股新高，关税谈判的最后一搏？

Core Viewpoint - The global market is experiencing positive changes due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and optimistic signals regarding new trade agreements between the U.S. and its major trading partners, leading to a significant recovery in investor risk appetite and a strong performance in capital markets, particularly in U.S. equities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices performed strongly, with the S&P 500 index rising by 31.88 points (0.52%) to close at 6204.95, marking a historical high. The S&P 500 accumulated a 10.57% increase in Q2 and a 5.50% rise in the first half of the year [3]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 275.50 points (0.63%) to 44094.77, with a June cumulative increase of 4.32%. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 96.28 points (0.48%) to 20369.73, with a June increase of 6.57% and a Q2 surge of 17.75% [3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The global market is closely monitoring the expiration of the "90-day tariff suspension" announced by President Trump, which is set to end on July 9. This suspension was intended to create space for trade negotiations [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed optimism about signing a series of trade agreements before the deadline but warned of high tariffs on countries that fail to reach agreements. The decision on whether to extend the suspension lies with President Trump [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The market is increasingly focused on the potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with expectations that inflation may continue to decline. There is speculation that the Fed could begin rate cuts as early as September, with a possibility of action in July [3][6]. - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that various paths are possible regarding interest rates, emphasizing the need for more economic data to make informed decisions. The market currently assigns a 21.2% probability to a July rate cut and a 75.1% probability to a September cut [6].