半导体周期已被打破

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a broken cycle, shifting from a traditional four-year cycle to a fragmented, profit-driven upward trend that only a few companies are feeling [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The historical four-year cycle in the semiconductor market has been disrupted, leading to a new trend that is not driven by demand but by profitability [1][2]. - Despite companies like Nvidia achieving record profits, many others in the supply chain, such as wafer manufacturers, are experiencing flat or negative growth, with TSMC's capacity utilization at only 73% [2]. - The current cycle is characterized by rising profitability without a corresponding increase in production, which is unusual compared to previous cycles [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - There is an increasing geopolitical and strategic divide among regions, with Taiwan having a coherent semiconductor strategy, ensuring advanced nodes remain domestically produced [2][3]. - Taiwan's "T-1" policy keeps the most advanced technology at home, while the U.S. is producing older technologies [3]. - In contrast, Europe lacks a clear semiconductor development plan, which hampers its competitiveness in the industry [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Signals and Future Outlook - The industry is overly reliant on traditional indicators and investor optimism, which may obscure underlying data trends [4]. - The rise of artificial intelligence is reshaping the semiconductor industry, with AI being the primary driver of current economic recovery [5]. - Capital expenditures from cloud computing companies are expected to increase by 48% this year, which may exacerbate supply constraints in other sectors [5].