【广发宏观贺骁束】高频数据下的6月经济：价格篇

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the mixed signals in price trends across various sectors in June, influenced by geopolitical factors and domestic demand dynamics, with particular attention to the fluctuations in industrial raw material prices and real estate markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industrial Raw Materials and Energy Prices - In June, the BPI index recorded 857 points, a slight increase of 0.1% compared to the end of May, with energy prices down by 0.1% and non-ferrous metal prices up by 1.9% month-on-month [1][4]. - The geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have caused fluctuations in energy prices, while the supply-demand structure tightening and a decline in the US dollar index contributed to the rise in non-ferrous metal prices [4]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Commodity Prices - Domestic pricing for coking coal and rebar futures saw significant month-on-month increases of 23.4% and 2.5%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in the domestic demand for these commodities [5][6]. - The South China Industrial Products Index showed a month-on-month increase of 4.2%, with a narrowing year-on-year decline compared to May [6]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The second-hand housing price index in major cities showed mixed results, with Shanghai's prices stabilizing. The indices for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recorded changes of -0.7%, 0.8%, -0.8%, and -0.04% respectively compared to the last week of May [6][8]. - The year-to-date high points for these cities were noted earlier in the year, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [6]. Group 4: Emerging Industries and Price Trends - The photovoltaic industry composite index continued to decline, down 4.6% month-on-month, primarily due to the performance of battery cells, while lithium carbonate futures prices increased by 5.3% [7][8]. - The DXI index, which reflects the semiconductor (DRAM) market's performance, surged by 29.4%, indicating strong demand in this sector [7][8]. Group 5: Shipping and Export Prices - In the shipping sector, most prices increased, with the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rising by 22.5% month-on-month. Specific routes, such as Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to New York, saw increases of 0.1% and 10.3%, respectively [9][10]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) also continued its upward trend, increasing by 5.0% month-on-month, reflecting a recovery in shipping rates [11]. Group 6: Food Prices and Market Dynamics - Food prices exhibited a mixed performance, with the average wholesale price of pork declining by 2.3% month-on-month, while the prices of 28 key vegetables rose by 0.5% [11]. - The average wholesale prices of seven monitored fruits fell by 5.5%, indicating a weak overall trend in food prices [11]. Group 7: Summary and Future Outlook - Overall, June's price signals were mixed, with geopolitical factors influencing oil prices and domestic demand driving certain commodity prices higher. The focus remains on the marginal changes in prices in sectors such as steel, coal, cement, photovoltaic, and automotive in the future [3][12].