华尔街见闻·2025-07-03 10:25Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for June is highly anticipated, especially after the unexpected decline in private sector employment reported by ADP, indicating significant weakness in the labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts sooner than expected [1][2]. Employment Data Expectations - Media surveys predict that June's non-farm payroll will increase by 106,000, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3% [2][3]. - UBS forecasts a more conservative increase of 100,000 jobs, while Citigroup is even more pessimistic, predicting only 85,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially reaching 4.4% [2][3]. - Analysts warn that if the non-farm payroll data falls below 60,000, it could raise concerns about stagflation [2][3]. Labor Market Indicators - Various labor market indicators have shown signs of weakening, with a notable increase in ongoing unemployment claims, which rose by 67,000 between May and June [5][8]. - Citigroup highlights a significant slowdown in hiring activity, particularly in the private sector, which typically sees an increase of around 800,000 jobs in June [8][10]. Wage Growth and Immigration Policy - Wage growth is expected to slow, with Citigroup predicting a month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings to drop from 0.4% in May to 0.2% in June, reflecting weak labor demand [11]. - Changes in immigration policy may also impact employment data, as recent court rulings could affect the temporary work permits of many recent immigrants, introducing uncertainty into the job market [13][14]. Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that market volatility following the non-farm payroll report is expected to be limited, with a focus on stagflation risks [16][18]. - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is under scrutiny, with expectations of potential rate cuts in September, especially if June's employment data is weak [19][20]. - UBS and Citigroup both suggest that if the labor market continues to show weakness, the Fed may act sooner than anticipated, with a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points expected by the end of the year [20][21].