供给侧改革2.0来了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new phase of supply-side reform (Supply-Side Reform 2.0) in response to the government's call for orderly exit of backward production capacity, particularly targeting industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e-commerce [4][10]. Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Context - The recent meeting of the Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to govern low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality, which has raised market expectations for a new wave of supply-side reforms [4][7]. - The article draws parallels between the current situation and the supply-side reforms initiated in 2015, which led to a significant bull market in commodities like steel and cement after addressing overcapacity [7][14]. Group 2: Industry Focus - The current focus of the reform is on new industries such as new energy vehicles and e-commerce, contrasting with the previous focus on traditional sectors like steel and cement [10][12]. - The article highlights that industries with historically low profit margins, such as petrochemicals, electrical equipment, and telecommunications, may also become targets for reform if the anti-involution movement expands [12][14]. Group 3: Demand and Market Dynamics - The sustainability of demand is crucial for determining the long-term direction of industries, as seen in the past when the real estate sector supported commodity prices during the previous supply-side reforms [11][12]. - The article raises questions about whether the current reforms will be limited to downstream sectors or if they will encompass the entire supply chain, which could significantly impact demand and pricing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical point for assessing the government's long-term demand-side strategies and their implications for various industries [15]. - It also notes that if the reforms are too aggressive, particularly in sectors that have already undergone significant transformation, there may be a need for government intervention to correct course [14][15].