研客专栏 | 焦煤“反内卷”逆袭？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the coal market, particularly focusing on Mongolian coal and domestic coking coal, highlighting price increases and supply adjustments due to production cuts and seasonal factors [3][5][12]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Market - Mongolian coal prices have increased from 705 CNY/ton to 740-750 CNY/ton due to supply tightening expectations during the Naadam Festival [3]. - The recent holiday closure of three major ports in Mongolia has contributed to a temporary supply reduction [3]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Production - Domestic coking coal production has seen reductions since May, driven by poor sales at state-owned mines and increased accidents at smaller mines, leading to a notable decrease in visible carbon inventory since mid-June [3][5]. - The reduction in production has started to show effects, with previously hidden inventory being consumed more effectively [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Movements - The recent shift in futures market sentiment has led to increased trading activity, with spot market prices for certain coal types rebounding significantly, such as Shanxi's lean coking coal price rising from 930 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [7]. - The price of Australian low-sulfur coking coal has also seen a notable increase, with the index rising by 9.7% to 196.85 [9]. Group 4: Steel Production and Market Expectations - Steel prices remain stable due to the relative weakness of coke and iron ore prices, with daily pig iron production maintaining a high level of 2.42 million tons [10]. - Discussions around "anti-involution" have positively influenced market expectations for future steel profits, suggesting potential upward pressure on both steel and raw material prices [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there is a current upward trend in coking coal prices, caution is advised regarding overly bullish expectations, as sustained high production and inventory replenishment from downstream sectors are necessary for further price increases [12].