国泰海通｜有色：供需构筑底线，政策强化弹性——稀土行业2025年中期策略报告

Core Viewpoint - The demand for rare earth elements (REE) is primarily driven by the growth of the electric vehicle (EV) sector, with price fluctuations closely linked to this demand [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Since 2020, the demand for new energy vehicles has been a core driving force for rare earths, with price trends reflecting the growth rates of this sector [1]. - In 2024, the demand for rare earth magnetic materials from China's new energy vehicles and wind power installations is projected to reach 63,000 tons, accounting for 24% of total domestic demand [2]. - The domestic supply of rare earths is undergoing significant consolidation, leading to a more optimized supply structure, while overseas resources remain underdeveloped [1][2]. Market Phases - The rare earth sector is transitioning from the second phase to the third phase of its market cycle, characterized by price recovery and increased valuations [3]. - The current market phase is marked by slow upward movement in prices, with expectations of further increases due to seasonal demand from the EV sector and overseas restocking [3]. Future Outlook - The demand for rare earths is expected to maintain high growth rates, particularly from the new energy sector, which will support the overall demand for magnetic materials [2]. - The potential for humanoid robots to drive demand for neodymium-iron-boron is significant, with an estimated requirement of 20,000 tons for 5 million units [2].