关税战下的美国抢进口：规模、区域和结构——海外周报第96期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of increased tariffs on U.S. imports, highlighting the scale, regions, and types of goods being imported as a response to tariff changes [4][5][6]. Group 1: Tariff Increases - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. rose to 7% in April, with projections of 2.3% for 2024. The effective tariff rate on imports from China increased to 37.5% in April, up from 25% in March, and is expected to drop to 10.6% in 2024. For regions outside China, the effective tariff rate rose to 3.9% in April from 1.8% in March, with a forecast of 1% for 2024 [5][9]. Group 2: Scale of Imports - U.S. imports surged by approximately $188.3 billion, accounting for 68.6% of the average monthly import value for 2024. This surge indicates a potential drag on import growth of about 9.8% over the next seven months due to demand being pulled forward [6][12]. - The share of air freight in U.S. imports increased significantly, peaking at 37.1% in the first quarter of the year, compared to an annual average of 27.6% for 2024, before slightly declining to 31.5% in April [6][12]. Group 3: Sources of Imports - The primary regions contributing to the increase in U.S. imports include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, which collectively accounted for an 11 percentage point increase in year-on-year import growth [7][15]. - The air freight share from Australia, the Eurozone, India, Vietnam, and Taiwan saw significant increases, although there was a decline in April for Australia and the Eurozone, indicating a potential decrease in import momentum from these regions [15][20]. Group 4: Types of Goods Imported - The main categories of goods that U.S. companies have been importing include electronic products, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which together contributed 18.5 percentage points to the year-on-year import growth from January to April [8][23]. - In April, while the growth rates for pharmaceuticals and raw metals slowed, electronic products continued to show strong demand, contributing 4.1 percentage points to the overall import growth [23][24].