出口跟踪：3问，40+数，50+图——出口深度思考系列一

Core Viewpoint - The article aims to address three key questions faced by export researchers: the current month's export growth rate, the quantitative analysis of recent export anomalies, and the overall export growth rate for the year [2][15]. Group 1: Monthly Forecasting - The most practical indicator for predicting the current month's export growth is the monitoring of container throughput at Chinese ports, which is the only weekly high-frequency indicator available [4][18]. - For a relative long-term forecast, the OECD G7 composite leading indicator and export delivery value are considered useful [5]. - Current indicators suggest that while China's export growth rate is marginally weakening in June, it still shows resilience [4]. Group 2: Analyzing Data Anomalies - The scale of "export grabbing" from China is assessed through three perspectives, indicating that the overall scale is not significant, but there has been a notable increase in exports to the U.S. [8]. - The analysis shows that from March to May, China's export growth rate exceeded the average fitted value by approximately 5.8 percentage points, resulting in an "excess" export of about $50.4 billion, which accounts for 17% of the average export amount in the first five months of the year [8]. - Comparatively, the current situation differs from 2018-2019, where the U.S. did not exhibit significant "import grabbing," while this time, the U.S. has shown a marked increase in imports [8]. Group 3: Annual Growth Rate Estimation - The forecast for the annual export growth rate is projected to be between -5% (in the event of a β risk outbreak) and 0% (if β risk does not materialize) [12]. - Key indicators for tracking global trade demand include the Morgan Stanley Global Manufacturing PMI and OECD composite leading indicators, which indicate a weakening global trade demand [12]. - The analysis suggests that the current export growth may lack sustained support due to weak terminal consumer demand, despite a strong production boost from "export grabbing" [12].