如何看待参议院通过《美丽大法案》？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Legislative Progress - The "Beautiful Act" has passed the Senate with a narrow margin of 51 to 50, entering the final legislative phase [1][13] - The bill will undergo review in the House of Representatives, with potential for further amendments [1][13] - Three possible timelines for final passage are outlined: before July 4, mid-July, or late July to August [2][13] Content Adjustments - The Senate version of the bill increases the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next decade, which is $550 billion more than the House version [2][14] - Corporate tax cuts are expanded while personal tax cuts are reduced, with a focus on benefiting high-income earners [2][14] - Significant cuts to healthcare and welfare spending are proposed, including an increase in medical assistance cuts from $800 billion to $930 billion [3][14] Economic Impact - The "Beautiful Act" is expected to moderately boost the U.S. economy, potentially increasing annual real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points from 2025 to 2027 [4][15] - The lowest 20% of income households may see a 2.9% decrease in income, while the highest 20% could experience a 1.9% increase due to tax cuts [5][15] - Capital-intensive industries, such as manufacturing and defense, are likely to benefit, while the renewable energy sector may face challenges due to reduced tax incentives [5][15]