【钢铁】落后产能退出预期再起，重视钢铁板块投资机会——钢铁行业动态点评（王招华/戴默）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the steel industry in China, highlighting the expected decline in steel demand and net exports in 2025, while also emphasizing the potential for profit recovery if outdated production capacity is phased out [4][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Events - On July 1, 2025, the Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting focused on advancing the construction of a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and improve product quality [4]. - A survey by Mysteel indicated that approximately half of the steel mills received notifications about a 30% production cut for sintering machines from July 4 to 15, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Demand and Export Forecast - Domestic steel demand in 2025 is projected to be around 850 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year, equating to a reduction of 13 million tons compared to 2024 [5]. - The net export of steel is expected to decline to the levels of 2023, with a forecasted decrease of 2.1 million tons year-on-year, influenced by anti-dumping policies from South Korea and Vietnam, as well as increased tariffs from the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Production and Profitability - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production was 432 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.59%, with the largest reductions occurring in Hubei, Guangdong, and Hebei [6]. - The total profit of the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the first five months of 2025 was 31.69 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability year-on-year [8]. - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry in the first half of 2025 was 281 yuan per ton, an increase of 52.45% year-on-year, indicating potential for further profit recovery if outdated production capacity is systematically eliminated [8]. Group 4: Historical Policy Impact - The article reviews past policies aimed at limiting steel production capacity, noting that the 2016 policy aimed to reduce excess capacity by 100 to 150 million tons, which led to significant price increases in the steel market [9]. - In the context of the "dual carbon" policy, the 2020 directive to compress crude steel production resulted in a 35% increase in steel prices from February to March 2021, despite a decline in the broader market [9]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - As of July 2, 2025, the price-to-book ratio (PB_LF) of the steel sector was 0.83, indicating a 23% upside potential compared to the average since 2013, with significant room for growth relative to peaks in 2017 and 2021 [10].