中金 | 人机系列02：传动的技术基因及发展趋势

Core Viewpoint - The current actuator transmission schemes for humanoid robots have not fully converged, with significant cost reduction potential for hardware as technology evolves and scales up, which is expected to drive mass production of humanoid robots [1][2]. Group 1: Actuator Transmission Schemes - The actuator transmission schemes for humanoid robots are diverse, with Tesla adopting a linear and rotational complementary scheme, while domestic companies primarily use a full rotational scheme [1][2]. - Linear actuators and rotational actuators exhibit complementary and substitutive relationships, depending on application scenarios and cost factors [1][2]. - The cost of ball screw technology is expected to decrease significantly, leading to broader application scenarios for linear actuators in the future [1][2]. Group 2: Processing Techniques and Cost Reduction - The processing routes for screws have not yet converged, while the technologies for reducers and bearings are relatively mature [1][2]. - The current high cost of linear actuators, centered around planetary roller screws, indicates that the processing techniques for screws still require improvement in terms of efficiency and yield [1][2]. - Future cost reductions for reducers and bearings will likely depend on scaling and structural design improvements [1][2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The processing technologies for screws, reducers, and bearings share similar machining characteristics, allowing for a diverse range of industry participants who can cross-enter different segments [2]. - Companies with multiple competitive advantages, such as technological, customer, and capital strengths, are expected to have a better competitive position in the future [2]. Group 4: Trends in Linear Actuators - The number of patent applications related to linear actuators in China has reached 6,796, surpassing the 3,324 for rotational actuators, indicating a growing focus on linear actuator development [9]. - The domestic market for planetary roller screws is still in its growth phase, with a low localization rate, suggesting significant potential for domestic manufacturers to capture market share [9]. Group 5: Future Development Directions - The trend towards mixed transmission systems combining screws and tendons in dexterous hands is expected to continue, driven by the need for high precision and lightweight designs [8]. - The focus on optimizing the design of bearings, screws, and reducers to reduce redundant mass is anticipated to be a key area of development [9][10].