Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US dollar, highlighting the divergence between a weakening dollar and rising US Treasury yields, suggesting caution in interpreting these signals as indicative of a broader trend towards de-dollarization [2]. Group 1: Conceptual Clarification - Two key concepts are defined: de-dollarization transactions, which involve selling dollar assets and reflect a contraction of US asset exposure, and weak dollar transactions, which do not require reducing dollar asset exposure but rather increasing short positions on the dollar [3]. Group 2: Background Context - Background 1: Since the strong dollar cycle began in 2014-2015, overseas institutions have maintained dollar exposure to benefit from both US Treasury yield spreads and dollar appreciation. By 2024-2025, major global pension funds have reduced their dollar hedging ratios to historical lows, indicating a significant dollar exposure [4]. - Background 2: There is a positive correlation between the dollar hedging ratios of pension funds and exchange rate volatility; higher volatility leads to stronger hedging demand [4]. Group 3: Current Analysis - Following the implementation of equal tariffs on April 3, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly. For institutions with large dollar exposures, there are two strategies: de-dollarization transactions or weak dollar transactions. The article leans towards weak dollar transactions as the primary reality, noting no significant outflows from US equities or bonds and a rise in speculative short positions on the dollar [5]. Group 4: Future Predictions - To predict the future of the dollar, two questions are posed: whether the short positions on the dollar have been fully covered and the structure of the holders of these short positions. Current data suggests that while some institutions have raised their hedging ratios, the momentum for covering short positions may have peaked, indicating a potential end to rapid dollar depreciation [9][10]. - The concentration of dollar short positions is at a historical low, suggesting a fragile trading structure. If the US economy remains stable and tech stocks perform well, there may be a risk of a rebound in the dollar as volatility decreases [10]. - Overall, the macro environment is characterized as "internal stability with external changes," with the narrative of de-dollarization being misinterpreted. The article concludes that the weakening of the dollar is nearing its end, with potential for a period of volatility or even a rebound [11].
张瑜:“弱美元”or“去美元”?“美元贬值”or“美元反弹”?——张瑜旬度会议纪要No.116
一瑜中的·2025-07-04 03:54