“外卖大战”，美团能否守擂成功？

Core Viewpoint - Despite short-term challenges from Douyin's traffic impact on food delivery and local life, as well as profit pressure from JD's food delivery, Meituan's high organizational efficiency and significant scale advantages suggest that it may represent a long-term investment opportunity over a two to three-year horizon [1] Financial Performance - In Q1, the company's revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, exceeding market expectations of 85.4 billion yuan; adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, up 46.2% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the market forecast of 9.73 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 12.6% [2] - Core local business revenue grew 17.8% year-on-year to 64.3 billion yuan, with delivery, commission, and advertising revenues increasing by 22%, 20%, and 15% respectively; the healthy growth in food delivery was driven by a reduction in subsidies [5] Business Segments - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to 22.2 billion yuan, although the growth rate slowed compared to the previous quarter; operating losses in new businesses narrowed by 18% year-on-year to 2.3 billion yuan, but widened quarter-on-quarter due to overseas expansion [5] - The management expects a slowdown in core local business revenue growth in Q2 due to intensified competition, with delivery order growth potentially decreasing from 15% in Q1 to 10%-11% [6] Competitive Landscape - The core competition in the food delivery sector is shifting towards instant retail, with the Ministry of Commerce predicting that the instant retail market will exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030 [7] - Meituan's strategy combines both defensive and offensive elements, with its flash purchase business serving as a key growth driver in instant retail [9][11] - JD's entry into the food delivery market is seen as a defensive move to protect its user base from Meituan's encroachment [12] Market Share and User Dynamics - Meituan's average order value is higher than that of its competitors, focusing on high-frequency essential food consumption, which results in a healthier order structure [14] - As of mid-June, Meituan's daily payment orders remained above 90 million, while JD and Taobao reported peak daily order volumes of over 25 million and 40 million respectively, maintaining a market share ratio of approximately 7:2:1 [16] Cost Structure and Cash Flow - Meituan maintains a significant advantage in delivery costs, with an average fulfillment cost of 4.2 yuan compared to JD's estimated cost of 11.5 yuan [17] - The company reported a robust cash flow of 10.1 billion yuan in Q1, with cash reserves of 115 billion yuan, significantly higher than JD's cash flow and reserves [17] Subsidy Strategies - JD has adjusted its subsidy policy, shifting a larger burden onto merchants, indicating the unsustainability of high subsidies and potentially alleviating competitive pressure on Meituan [18][19] Long-term Outlook - Meituan's scale advantages and logistics capabilities in instant retail are expected to support its market share and competitive strength, with a potential stock price turning point anticipated in the second half of 2025 [24][25]