中金：美国 6 月非农超预期 预计 9 月开始降息

Core Viewpoint - The June non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong U.S. labor market and solid economic fundamentals [1][2]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll Data - June non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the expected 106,000, with May's figure revised from 139,000 to 144,000 and April's from 147,000 to 158,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, significantly lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2% [2]. - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, slightly below expectations and the previous value of 62.4% [2]. - Hourly wages increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%; year-on-year growth was 3.7%, below the expected 3.8% and previous 3.9% [2]. - The overall employment growth and declining unemployment rate suggest a strong labor market, although the private sector saw a decrease of 63,000 jobs when excluding government job additions [2]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the non-farm data, the market now anticipates a 93% probability that the July interest rate will remain unchanged, with expectations for rate cuts starting in September, totaling two cuts within the year [3]. - The Federal Reserve's need to lower rates is supported by the actual interest rate being 1.78%, which is higher than the natural rate of 1.0% by 0.78 percentage points [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has previously hindered the Fed's ability to cut rates, but as this uncertainty diminishes, the likelihood of rate cuts increases [3]. Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields have recently declined too quickly, potentially leading to a reallocation opportunity if rates rise due to increased bond supply and temporary inflation spikes [4]. - The potential passage of significant fiscal legislation could result in approximately $1 trillion in bond issuance from July to September, which, along with inflationary pressures, may drive interest rates higher [4]. - The stock market is also expected to face challenges in the third quarter, but any volatility could present reallocation opportunities, maintaining a non-pessimistic outlook [4].