国泰海通｜宏观：美国非农：超预期背后仍有隐忧

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. job market shows signs of recovery with better-than-expected non-farm payrolls in June, but underlying weaknesses suggest a slowing trend, making it unlikely for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the short term [1][2]. Non-Farm Data Summary - Positive News: - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, an increase from 144,000 in May, with a three-month average of 150,000 jobs added [1]. - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in May to 4.1% in June, contrary to market expectations of a rise to 4.3% [1]. - Revisions to previous months' job additions showed slight upward adjustments of 5,000 and 11,000 for May and April, respectively [1]. - Concerns: - The increase in non-farm jobs was primarily driven by government employment, raising questions about sustainability, while private sector job growth showed a notable decline [1]. - Although the unemployment rate decreased, the labor force participation rate also declined [1]. - There was a decrease in average work hours, and wage growth on a month-over-month basis continued to slow [1]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to the current state of the job market not showing significant deterioration and the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation [2].