国泰海通｜房地产：物业财报“从迷雾走向精深”系列（2）——物业应收账款研究

Core Insights - The article focuses on the management of accounts receivable in the property industry, emphasizing its significant impact on cash flow and potential dividend sustainability [1] - It analyzes the cash flow management changes of 30 sample companies, highlighting the increasing scale of accounts receivable since 2021 due to industry downturns and slower payment collection from third-party owners [1] Accounts Receivable Growth Trends - The total accounts receivable of the 30 tracked listed property companies reached 29.18 billion, 48.32 billion, 68.34 billion, 74.25 billion, and 75.37 billion from 2020 to 2024, with growth rates of +42.6%, +65.6%, +41.4%, +8.7%, and +1.5% respectively [2] - Since 2023, the growth rate of accounts receivable has fallen below that of operating revenue, indicating a significant slowdown [2] Changes in Related Party Transactions - The proportion of accounts receivable from related parties has decreased from 47% to 39% over the past five years, while third-party receivables have increased from 53% to 61% [2] - The risk from related parties is gradually diminishing, with the proportion of related party receivables for companies with parent company risks dropping from 91% in 2019 to 44% in 2024 [2] Payment Collection Challenges - The aging of accounts receivable has increased, with the proportion of receivables due within one year dropping from 89% in 2019 to 58% in 2024, indicating greater difficulty in collection [3] - The provision for accounts receivable has significantly increased from 4% in 2019 to 26% in 2024, reflecting heightened risk [3] - The overall collection rate for sample companies has declined from 90% to 78% between 2019 and 2024, with companies facing parent company risks experiencing lower collection rates [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with independent business competitiveness and reduced related party transactions are deemed important for evaluation [3] - Companies with strong parent company backgrounds and high rankings in property sales can provide performance support while mitigating related party receivable risks [3] - Commercial management companies are favored due to their better collection rates and lower instances of long-term arrears [3]