大而美法案落地，美国新能源补贴“悬崖式”退场

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant policy shift in the U.S. regarding renewable energy and its implications for the industry, particularly following the passage of the Omnibus Budget and Bipartisan Balanced Budget Act (OBBBA), which reverses previous incentives and support for clean energy initiatives [1][2][5]. Summary by Sections Legislative Changes - The OBBBA extends the tax cuts from 2017 and introduces new consumer tax incentives, aiming to stimulate the economy with a focus on consumption rather than investment-driven growth [2]. - The act eliminates key clean energy and electric vehicle incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), marking a fundamental shift in U.S. fiscal and industrial policy [2][4]. Impact on Renewable Energy Sector - The removal of government support is seen as a "strategic destruction" of the renewable energy sector, creating a challenging environment for long-term capital investments [6][8]. - Predictions indicate a potential reduction of 57% to 72% in new clean energy capacity additions in the U.S. due to the new regulations [7]. Electric Vehicle Market - The OBBBA will end tax credits for electric vehicles much earlier than previously planned, leading to a significant drop in projected EV market penetration, which is now estimated at around 12% by 2025, halving previous expectations [9][8]. - The act also relaxes penalties for traditional fuel vehicles, potentially leading to a short-term surge in EV purchases followed by a sharp decline in sales [8]. Supply Chain and Trade Implications - The introduction of a 20% tariff on goods imported from Vietnam further complicates the supply chain for U.S. battery and solar companies that had relied on Vietnam as a production hub [10][11]. - The OBBBA introduces stringent rules regarding foreign entities, complicating compliance and potentially freezing investments in the sector [13][14]. Market Reactions - Major financial institutions have downgraded the outlook for U.S. automakers, reflecting the immediate impact of the policy changes on market dynamics [15]. - Companies are responding differently, with some shifting investments back to traditional vehicle production while others continue to pursue electric vehicle projects despite the risks [15][16]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The article warns that the U.S. "battery belt" could transform into a "rust belt" due to the abrupt policy changes, jeopardizing previously announced clean energy investments totaling $522 billion [18]. - The global oversupply pressure may increase, leading to intensified price competition and challenges for businesses that previously thrived under more favorable conditions [19].