研客专栏 | 非农为啥“吓不到”市场？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent U.S. employment data, highlighting its implications for the economy and market sentiment, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the potential for market volatility. Employment Data Analysis - The June non-farm payrolls showed a surprising increase of 147,000 jobs, exceeding the expectation of 110,000, indicating strong resilience in the labor market [6][10] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, breaking the market expectation of 4.3% [13] - State and local government hiring was a significant contributor to the job growth, with an increase of 48,000 jobs [10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached new highs, while the dollar stabilized [8] - The market's confidence was reflected in the continued rise of stock prices despite a decrease in interest rate expectations [8][6] Federal Reserve's Position - The employment data provides a relatively comforting signal for the Federal Reserve, reducing the urgency for intervention in the labor market [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have been adjusted, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year reduced to two [6] Wage and Hour Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating a slowdown in wage growth [20] - The average workweek for private non-farm employees slightly decreased by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours, suggesting potential recruitment demand risks [20] Sector-Specific Insights - Private sector employment saw a surprising decline of 63,000 jobs, primarily due to a slowdown in service sector demand [17] - Manufacturing employment continued to face challenges, with negative growth persisting due to tariff impacts and rising costs [17] Potential Risks - The article notes potential downward risks, including the impact of federal government layoffs and a decrease in private sector demand, which could affect future economic growth [15][17]