【宏观】政府就业回升不可持续，美国非农弱势渐显——2025年6月美国非农数据点评（高瑞东）

Core Viewpoint - The June 2025 non-farm employment data in the U.S. shows a rebound in job creation, but underlying concerns remain regarding the sustainability of this growth [3][6]. Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 110,000, with the previous month's figure revised from 139,000 to 144,000 [2]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2% [2]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.9% [2]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Employment Trends - Government employment contributed nearly half of the new jobs in June, which is significantly above seasonal trends, raising questions about its sustainability [3]. - Private sector job growth weakened, particularly in the service sector, where job additions dropped from 141,000 to 68,000, indicating potential economic pressures due to tariff disruptions [3][4]. - Retail sector employment showed a positive shift, adding 2,000 jobs compared to a loss of 7,000 jobs in the previous month, suggesting a potential stabilization in consumer spending [4]. Group 3: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3% from 62.4%, indicating a decline in employment willingness among the youth [5]. - The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 222,000, contributing to the drop in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.1% [5]. - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 7.7% from 7.8%, indicating improvements in the part-time job market [5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Given the unsustainable nature of government job growth, there is a risk of weakening non-farm data, leading to a higher probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [3][6]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts in 2025, with the first cut anticipated in September, having a probability exceeding 60% [6].