瑞·达利欧新书最新警告：当下全球正处于 “ 死亡螺旋 ” 临界点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in the global order due to the intersection of the "Great Debt Cycle" and "Five Forces," as outlined by Ray Dalio in his new book "Why Nations Fail: The Great Cycle" [1][3]. Group 1: Great Debt Cycle - The Great Debt Cycle typically spans about 80 years, leading to significant debt bubbles and their eventual bursts [6][11]. - The cycle consists of five stages: 1. Sound monetary phase with low net debt levels [11] 2. Debt bubble phase with abundant and cheap capital [12] 3. Peak phase where the bubble bursts [13] 4. De-leveraging phase where debt levels adjust to sustainable states [14] 5. Recovery phase leading to a new cycle [15]. - Central banks often face a choice between printing money, leading to currency devaluation, or halting printing, which could trigger widespread defaults [8][9]. Group 2: Five Forces Impacting the Future - The first force is the debt/credit/money/economic cycle, which creates purchasing power and drives asset prices but also leads to debt accumulation [19]. - The second force involves internal order and chaos cycles, where political fluctuations can lead to significant changes in governance [20][21]. - The third force is the external order and chaos cycle, highlighting the shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global relations [24][25]. - The fourth force is natural forces, such as droughts and pandemics, which have historically caused more destruction than wars [26][27]. - The fifth force is human creativity, particularly technological advancements like AI, which can significantly impact various sectors [28][42]. Group 3: Future Predictions - There is a high probability (65%) of a global debt restructuring crisis within the next five years, which could severely impact the dollar's dominance [3][35]. - Political shifts towards authoritarianism may occur as populist conflicts intensify within nations [36]. - The next five years are expected to witness significant technological advancements, particularly in AI, which will reshape many industries [40][41].