邱延冰：数智金融新趋势——稳定币的机遇、挑战与中国路径

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the importance of digital finance, particularly focusing on stablecoins and their potential to reshape the financial landscape, enhance operational efficiency, and create new digital financial ecosystems [2][3][6]. Group 1: Digital Finance and Stablecoins - Stablecoins are positioned as a new financial infrastructure that can disrupt traditional payment systems by offering low-cost, instantaneous settlements, thereby creating a new global payment ecosystem [2][3]. - The current market size of stablecoins is estimated to be between $200 billion and $300 billion, with predictions of growth to $1 trillion to $3 trillion by 2030 [6]. - In 2024, stablecoin transaction volume reached $30 trillion, surpassing the combined transaction volume of Visa and MasterCard, although 70% of this volume is attributed to automated trading [6][7]. Group 2: Impact on the Real Economy - The contribution of stablecoins to the real economy is currently limited, with estimates suggesting that less than 30% of stablecoin transactions serve real economic activities [7]. - The potential for stablecoins to reduce transaction fees and streamline payment processes presents significant opportunities for growth in the real economy [7][8]. - The development of stablecoins could lead to a new ecosystem for payments, similar to WeChat's payment system, allowing for various transactions without the need to convert to traditional fiat currencies [8][9]. Group 3: Regulatory and Innovation Landscape - The regulatory environment for stablecoins is crucial, with the U.S. currently leading in legislative efforts, which could influence global financial dynamics and potentially lead to increased dollarization in other economies [9][11]. - China is encouraged to leverage Hong Kong as a testing ground for stablecoin innovations, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach between regulation and innovation [11][13]. - The integration of AI in financial services is expected to expand access to banking services, particularly for underserved populations, enhancing the overall financial ecosystem [10][12].