硬AI·2025-07-05 14:54Core Viewpoint - Nvidia and Microsoft are both approaching a $4 trillion market valuation, but they represent fundamentally different AI investment logics: Nvidia focuses on direct bets on core infrastructure, while Microsoft emphasizes long-term belief in the proliferation of application ecosystems [2][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Position - Nvidia's value surge is attributed to its unique position in the AI value chain, acting as a "supplier" where any company looking to enter the AI field must first procure its chips, leading to explosive growth with annual sales increasing over tenfold in the past three years [4][9]. - Analysts predict Nvidia's average annual growth rate will remain at 32% over the next three years, although its growth is contingent on the demand from its largest customers and the potential emergence of disruptive technologies [9][10]. Group 2: Microsoft's Strategy - Microsoft plays the role of a "service provider," betting on deeply integrating AI technology into its extensive product matrix, such as Azure cloud services and Office software, and convincing users to pay a premium for these AI-enhanced services [4][5]. - Microsoft's market capitalization increased by $1 trillion in less than three months, but achieving a $4 trillion valuation would result in the highest expected earnings multiple in over 20 years, indicating that the market has high expectations for its future performance [2][6]. Group 3: Challenges Facing Microsoft - Microsoft faces significant challenges, including a potential rift with early partner OpenAI, which may restructure their relationship as OpenAI seeks to become a standard profit-driven company [7]. - The company is also struggling to reduce its dependency on Nvidia, encountering difficulties in developing its own AI chips, while undergoing large-scale internal restructuring, including layoffs aimed at increasing efficiency and investment in AI [7][8]. - Financially, AI's contribution to Microsoft remains limited, with AI services in the Azure cloud generating approximately $11.5 billion, which is only about 4% of total sales, providing some downside protection [9].