Core Viewpoint - TSMC's expansion into multiple continents poses challenges to its strategic bandwidth and investor patience, despite its status as a leading semiconductor manufacturer [1] Group 1: U.S. Expansion Costs - TSMC's commitment to a $165 billion investment in the U.S. includes plans to build three chip factories, with a notable facility in Arizona expected to produce chips using advanced 2nm technology by 2028 [2] - The timeline for U.S. production is several years behind Taiwan's, indicating that U.S. tech companies may still need to import advanced chips from Taiwan for the foreseeable future [2] - TSMC's international ambitions are facing setbacks, with a $20 billion factory in Kumamoto, Japan, experiencing delays as resources are reallocated to the U.S. market [2] Group 2: Strategic Tug-of-War - Recent legislation in Taiwan aims to retain advanced manufacturing capabilities domestically, ensuring that TSMC's overseas factories lag behind its local fabs by at least one generation [3] - This policy enhances Taiwan's strategic advantage but limits the role of U.S. or Japanese factories in producing cutting-edge chips [3] - TSMC's global expansion may not fully alleviate Western concerns about semiconductor dependency, as the company remains geographically tied to Taiwan [3] Group 3: Execution Risks - Investors are concerned about TSMC's ability to manage multiple billion-dollar chip projects across regions with varying regulatory, political, and logistical challenges, which could lead to execution risks and underutilization of capacity [4] - TSMC asserts that its plans are driven by customer demand and strategic opportunities, claiming that investments in the U.S. will not detract from expansion in other regions [4] Group 4: Uncertainty from Tariffs - The semiconductor sector has not yet been impacted by tariffs from the Trump era, but the U.S. Department of Commerce is investigating whether to impose national security-related tariffs on imported chips, adding another layer of unpredictability [5] Group 5: Implications for TSMC Shareholders - TSMC's stock fell by 0.5% in Taipei, reflecting the complexity of its future development amid geopolitical challenges [6] - Investors must weigh the benefits of geopolitical hedging against the execution risks of building complex manufacturing capabilities in multiple regions [6] - TSMC remains essential to global technology but must demonstrate its ability to be indispensable across various locations simultaneously [6]
台积电斥资1650亿美元投资美国，过犹不及？