BABA(US:BABA) 证券时报·2025-07-06 03:13Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the intense competition between Meituan and Alibaba in the instant retail and food delivery market, driven by significant promotional subsidies during the summer consumption peak, leading to record order volumes and potential market restructuring [4][6][8]. Group 1: Order Volume and Market Activity - As of July 5, Meituan's instant retail orders exceeded 120 million, with over 100 million being food delivery orders, accounting for over 80% of the total [1]. - The surge in orders was attributed to a "subsidy war" initiated by Alibaba and Meituan, with both platforms offering substantial discounts and coupons to stimulate consumer spending [4]. - On the same day, Meituan experienced a peak order volume that triggered server protection measures, causing temporary service disruptions for some users [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Alibaba's Taobao Shanguo announced a 500 billion yuan subsidy plan aimed at boosting consumer and merchant engagement, resulting in significant order growth for restaurant chains and small businesses [5]. - Goldman Sachs outlined three potential competitive scenarios for the food delivery and instant retail market, indicating that the current price war aims to capture user traffic for cross-selling more profitable services [6][7]. - The ongoing competition is expected to reshape the industry landscape, with total investments from the major players reaching 25 billion yuan in June alone [6]. Group 3: Future Market Projections - Goldman Sachs estimates that the food delivery market could reach 2.4 trillion yuan and the instant retail market could reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by improved supply chain efficiencies and new consumption models [8].